My Euro Outlook for July 19th
Here it goes folks, the first of many “forecasts”. I will note this, this is not a prediction. I do not predict where the markets are going. I have learned and am still learning to let the market tell me where it is going. So please do not take this “advice” as fact. Do your own analysis and if you must, accept others’ analysis as suggestions, none of which should be elevated above your own.
My thoughts, the EURUSD is priming for a breakout. The triangle formation that almost every technical analyst is aware of held on Friday, but looking at the charts looks to be almost bumping up against the end of it. Conventional wisdom says we should expect a decent move in either direction soon. Now I’m not sure which way it will go. The triangle is symmetrical so it could swing either way. With U.S. equities being a major driver in the past week and no huge fundamental news out of Europe, Monday morning in New York might be the best opportunity to catch a decent move. Right now we are in a 1.4150 – 1.4060 range. On the daily chart, there is a dark cloud cover, which is bearish. There is a bit of a long lower shadow though, which sort of trims the significance off though. Dailys are also nearing oversold on stochastics with a possible divergence forming(but I will discount that until it happens, if it does) Also, though it was a down day on Friday, most of that appears to be a last hour sell-off from those that didn’t want to hold a position over the break. So net advantage is to the bulls, at least in my mind. Look for the signs and make your own conclusion though.
My targets as usual are the daily pivots and other key resistances/supports. On the bullish end 1.4150 which is the pivot, near top of the triangle, and top of another longer term trend. That might be hard to crack. After that, 4180. 4203, 4227, and the very key area of 1.4289. Above that is key for a continuation of a stronger move.
On the downside 1.4093, 4069, 4038, the 1.40 area, and 1.3959 which is also a key longer term area for a bearish continuation. Also on the way down, 1.4059, which was the intraday support area from Friday.
So what is all the talk without a chart —
Good luck all!
Great analysis!
The narrow range trade in the EUR/USD, as well as in many other pairs can’t last very long. I also think that the bulls have a small advantage.
I’ve seen your analysis on Forex Factory. I appreciate the compliment as it let’s me know I am on the right track. And it looks like our biases held true, but unfortunately I wasn’t able to take advantage of the move today. There will be more opportunities to come, but still it would have been nice if I could have benefited from my own opinion. Hope you caught some pips, not so great for me with a late start today and little time left for me.
Well thanks for stopping by and especially for the validation of my analysis!