RealTrue Fx

It’s been a nice vacation for me, but it isn’t quite over. Lately I’ve been spending hours and hours further studying price action, but not following the markets much. I’ve checked the S&P and the Dow, as well as crude and a smattering of forex pairs, but not much overall. I’m gearing up for my return to the forex markets. I started in stocks, but really began to hone my skills on forex. So as soon as I feel that I am ready again, I’ll start trading forex again. I’ll also be posting my analysis on trade setups and try to post live updates when I can. More likely, I’ll post the setups here and live trades on the Twitter page.

As for the next couple days though, I’m headed through the Alaskan wilderness back to civilization for a couple of days to the ‘big’ city. I plan to spend some more time with family, while the markets are quiet too, and have some fun and good food. Then, early next week it’s catch up time and back to the grind. Actually, I hope to back into the forex markets next week, but will have to take a look at some stock action as well. So in the meantime, check out previous posts, drop me a note, and check back in again next week for some new content.

One thing about being in the far north is that this time of year features 24 hour daylight (twilight for several of those hours though) and it plays tricks on the body for sure. I have just been exhausted the last two weeks with a sleep schedule that is way off mark. Add to it the fact that when the exchanges open in New York, it is about 530AM here. So my mid day update, for those on the East Coast of the U.S. is actually the start of my day here in Alaska.

With all that in mind, no charts today either. Really, I would probably just pull up those from last week anyways and update prices until today. For Schlumberger, that would mean that the lower channel probably has held, but there was no strong bounce. There is turmoil in Iran and oil not only doesn’t go up, but went down. A year ago, crude would have been streaking towards $200 on that kind of news. So even though SLB is holding the channel, I’m not convinced it will continue to so. This oil rally had me nervous anyways, as it really looked inflated and premature.  Bottom line is, I’m not confident in what SLB is going to do, so no trades for me.

AAPL looks as it bounced of it’s lower channel earlier today. Actually, it pulled off lows yesterday, but I would really have to pull up a good chart to verify that it was off the trend line. So for now, bias remains bullish, but that could change with a break of the trend line.

One last stock to mention, only as a follow up to earlier. Sirius XM looks like it is up again today. It broke a symmetric triangle last week to the upside and nearest resistance is in the .50s . So hopefully those longs from way up higher can begin to regain some of those losses. Either way, crappy stock, wish I had paid more attention to the charts when I had bought it. Buying solely on fundies seems like such a gamble sometimes and I do NOT gamble.

As for forex, I have been chomping at the bit to get back into the markets, but just am not ready. Soon I’ll unveil my strategy after I’ve back-tested and forward-tested some. Basically though, the focus is on Fibos, daily pivots, price action, and trends and I might throw in an occasional look at stochastics if I need further confirmation. I like stochs, but they are absolutely useless in a strong trending environment. So if I think a move is getting tired, I might glance at the stochastics. Well that is all for today, but I might check in later with a few charts. I really need to get my MetaTrader setup again for trading since it was wiped when I upgraded my computer recently so I might do that instead.

Until then- Good Trading!

Well, I never really got it together this weekend. I thought about posting up some forex educational materials, mainly a re-hash of some stuff I have read in the last couple of weeks. I will still do this, just not this weekend. I also thought of doing some stock charting as well, but I really think the near term focus is going to be forex. When I first started trading, it was stocks that I was first exposed to.  What really got me going was forex though. My longer term strategy is a mixture of stocks, options, and forex and even in the short term I plan to at least cover stocks and forex together. For the moment though, I really just want to get a good strategy together for my forex trading and get back to that. I’ve been trying to overcome some fears I have had trading forex recently and a general lack of enthusiasm for trading at all. Until I have a plan together , though, I can’t make a move.

Really, the biggest reason for no analysis this weekend, is my twitter Iran addiction. I won’t say much on here as it’s not the right place, but it is a truly amazing movement in a truly modern way. It is in many ways a global revolution, which is also very amazing. I tried, but I just couldn’t keep my eyes off it. This revolution may not be televised, but it is being tweeted. One last thing, it is always important to remember that trading is not everything. Money isn’t everything. Some things are more important.

Good luck to all in their endeavors for freedom and prosperity. I’ll check back in on Monday.

In the about section just released yesterday I noted that this would not be a personal blog and with that in mind something else came into my head just this morning that sort of pushes that envelope a bit. Since this is my site, I guess I can bend the rules a little bit. Still, this is more investment advice than it is a life story. We can just call it a life lesson if you like.

One word of advice I have often heard in business and investments is that ‘business is never personal’. That may be true to some, but for a lot of us just trying to make a dollar out of fifteen cents can be personal sometimes. Trading is best accomplished with a clear head and no emotions because in reality it is just numbers and logic.

My number one rule when I started investing, which you’ll hear a lot out there, is to never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I followed this from my first stock purchase and continue to do so with every move that I make. I guess that is why I’m able to do so little trading these days. I have enough to be comfortable in life, but not enough to make any big steps forward. So I take little steps and do my best to insure that if I do take a loss, it won’t be the end of trading or much more. I could take this one step further by saying if you are risking any money in the markets, consider that money gone before you commit to a trade. Then if it turns a profit, you can be pleased about that, but if it is a loser then you have already dealt with that possibility. This should make it easier to handle if you get emotional. Also, it forces you to consider risk/reward before you enter a trade. If risk/reward isn’t right, why enter the trade in the first place?

Risk/Reward is an important concept to master, after all it’s just math. The more difficult part is mastering your own emotions. I haven’t found that factor to be as important in stock trading, though it is a part of it. Forex trading, though, has taught me a tremendous amount about myself emotionally. Really, the only reason I am convinced that I am cut out to be a forex trader is  because I absolutely refuse to give up. Quitting is just not in my psychological makeup. Yes, I’ve taken my losses, but the more I lost, the more I handled it with less emotion. I’ve been taking a break from trading currencies so that I can successfully and consistently trade. I did have successes trading forex, and in actuality had more successes than losses, at least in quantity. Percentage wise, the majority of my trades were successful. Unfortunately, for a bit I let leverage kill me. I also don’t have total control over my own emotions, which contributed to a couple costly meltdowns. So for a while I’m concentrating on becoming a better trader, in what I consider to be somewhat calmer waters of the stock market

When I started this post I was feeling a bit discouraged, but also inspired as well. Getting this site up and running has been quite a challenge, and even though there have been quite a few folks who have checked in I’ve been struggling with getting the word out without appearing to be a spammer. I absolutely am not a spammer! I am just a guy, trying to attract viewers and create sort of a community on this site where I can teach others what I have learned and also learn more about the markets from those who know more than I. And yes I have ads, but this does cost money to keep alive. It does take a lot of time. If no one wants to support this, that is okay. I will continue to contribute because I know that I have already profited from the lessons I’ve learned and will continue to do so.

Before I veer too wildy off the original intent of this post, I’ll simply end with the bottom line version of my philosophy. The bottom line is, don’t let anyone tell you what you can’t do and never give up. As investors, we’ll take losses sometimes. We’ll make calls that no one agrees with and actually be right sometimes. We simply have to stick to our plans. Find a strategy that suits you and works well and work that profit out like there’s no tomorrow. Keep going until you reach whatever goal it is that you are pursuing and always, always  stay positive.

I think we have reached a very important point in the markets this week. Obviously the last couple of days have not been great. To further clarify what is going on, pay special attention to the S&P 500. The chart below will demonstrate exactly what I am talking about. Several days ago, there was a gap up which established support at about 920. Tuesday’s close was below this support, breaking it cleanly. To add on to that, there was also a longer term trend line that was broken on Friday, though that wasn’t exactly clear on Friday. To put the nail in the coffin, so to speak, the S&P also closed below the 20 EMA. In the short term, this has the potential to indicate that the long-awaited correction has effectively begun. I would expect, if the trend was to continue lower, that we might see a renewed test of 920 on Wednesday. Of course we could have some surprises and break back above 920 or the trend could continue higher, with resistance being the formerly lower end of the channel. If that happens, expect upwards movement to have slowed for awhile, which signals the correction. We could also just trend sideways, which I think is also a good possibility. So here’s the chart –

As for Apple, well, I think short term it continues to be bearish. The biggest reason for this, is that former support was just confirmed as resistance with a close below 138. There still remains a lot of indecision and no clear direction or movement. Risk, reward isn’t great either. Realistically, I would probably leave AAPL alone for now. Unless you are doing short term daytrades, it is probably better to wait it out. There also appears to be support a little below today’s close, so if you can catch it in a range, it would make for some good range-trading opportunities on Wednesday.

As for Schlumberger, it could test the 54 area in the next couple days, but unless it breaks the lower channel, should bounce back up soon enough thereafter. The oil rally scared me from the beginning, as I thought it was too much, too soon. I’m a chartist so I try not to let the fundies get in my way, but sometimes the fundamentals simply yell too loudly. This is the case with oil and oil-related stocks. So will it hold the trend? I think it very well may, but we’ll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings. I think Wednesday should be very telling. Here’s that chart–

Good luck Wednesday everyone!

I don’t have any charts this morning as I have been working long hours on getting this site up and running. Besides the layout and general web site work I’ve done, there’s also the RSS and email subscription services that can be signed up for on the upper right side bar. I just did a really quick look at Apple, Schlumberger, and the S&P and though I am glad I missed yesterday’s big down day, the price levels on those tickers is something of note(especially the S&P). Apple and the S&P are going to need to be re-charted at this point, but SLB looks right on target for now. I’ll check back in later with at least an update on the aforementioned sometime after close today or at least before open tomorrow.

Well, here is my humble web beginnings. I started out on blogpsot with a personal blog a couple years ago and didn’t do much with that. Very recently, I’ve added a new blog, which quickly became a focus of much of my time. Because of its success and the intent to make this a long term deal, I decided to stop ‘renting’ and ‘buy’ a home on the web. So I’m here to stay and this is where I can be found http://www.realtruefx.com

Over the next couple days I’ll get back down to the business of making money and hopefully helping others learn and make money. So, stop on by!

I’ve got charts for Apple and Schlumberger today. I probably have beaten them to death in the past few weeks, but honestly I’m very interested in both. I don’t have Apple money, so that stock is a bit out of my range right now. I would have bought back when I recommended it at 123-24. At that time it bottomed out around 122.50 before barging forward for an 8 point bounce and continuing up to a peak of 146.40, which was pretty close to my call of 145. It then retreated to a low of 138.30 on Wednesday and tested that as new support on declining volume and declining downward price action. So what’s next? A break of 138 suggests downward towards 130. A close in the next couple days above 140 confirms my bias, which is that price action was simply taking a breather on it’s way back up past 145 towards 150. If I had good charting software I’d draw a Fib and further pinpoint a price target, but next significant resistance is around 152 from last August lows. Here’s the chart focusing mainly on the next couple days trading though –

As for Schlumberger, it had a pretty nice surge on Thursday, peaking at almost 64 before it hit an upper trend line and market profit taking also took effect late in the day relieving the market from it’s bullish run. The events helped confirm my previous projections of 65-70, or at least nearly. I was long and jumped out, in the upper wick of the candle not too far removed from the day’s highs. The reason this was my preferred resistance area, was a long high volume bearish candle from October 15th 2008 which had a high of 64.81. That is the key point at the moment. Looking at my current chart, there might be some more room to move up higher to that level, but with a long wick on today’s candle one has to start considering the long run might be more tilting towards correction back towards 55. An upmove wouldn’t surprise me on Friday, but a close above 64.81 would. The trend line that SLB is following is pretty steep and unsustainable and a fall below it could also be easily a few points, especially with SLB being a bit volatile just as it’s leading indicator crude is. A close below Thursday’s open at 59.80 would further help confirm the corrective move. So here’s that chart–

One last note on the S&P, STILL not a close above 947 resistance. The market tested it and after I posted earlier in the day, profit taking took hold. So, still waiting for a close above that resistance level and a clear bullish move as a signal that the rally might extend to near 1000. With the momentum on several different equities I’ve been watching also waning, my confidence of that extension is also waning, but my bias is still bullish until the S&P closes below 923, which is a gap that held from a week or so ago. It also looks like there might now be support in the 938 area too, which might help further the bull case. So we’ll just have to see what happens in the next week or so, as I would expect some further direction either next week or after options expiration next week.

One final note, check out Alex’s trading journal. The link is over on the right of this site under ‘Interesting Links’ –> ‘Options Trading Journal’ . This guy really knows his options(something I’m not that well versed in yet, but when I do start trading options I’ll make sure to delve deeply into his materials over there to help me learn).
After all I’m just a simple chartist. Until next time, good trading!

Since I am at work and don’t have good access to charts or time at the moment I’ll keep this short. Economic data looked good this morning, or so the headlines say. I don’t pay a great deal of attention to fundamentals, only make myself aware of them. As a result of news, stocks jumped higher today. In doing so, a few stocks I follow have made bullish moves as well. I’ll have to take a look further later today after close to see the total affects. Schlumberger rocketed higher on higher crude, the S&P broke 947 pretty convincingly(still waiting for a close above it today though) and even Apple is a little higher after it’s retrace. I expected Apple to retrace once it hit 145 though anyway. Right now not so sure what direction it will take though. I’ll check back later to take a further look. Until then

Good Trading!

Okay, I admit it and I am ashamed. I own Sirius. I know, I know, WTH, right? Oh and no I didn’t buy at sub ten cents either. I didn’t buy when bankruptcy was almost destined. I didn’t buy after Liberty stepped in and saved the day either. Actually it is much, much worse. I bought right after the merger with XM. Sirius XM stock is the reason I am a chartist, the reason I learned not to listen to and base my decision solely on anyone else’s analysis, especially fundamental analysis (can anyone say Jim Cramer?). Now that wasn’t a shot at Cramer, I find him entertaining sometimes. I’ll take full responsibility for being a new investor that didn’t know what I was doing at the time and shouldn’t have been in the markets anyways. So if nothing else, Sirius has been a wonderful learning experience for me.

Does anyone remember what happened after the merger? Well, I can look at my statements and see something like an 80 percent loss on paper. At this point I figure there really is no point in taking this loss. If it went to zero, it can’t hurt much more anyways. If I ever make break even, or better that would be great. So, will I ever break even? I don’t know, but a look at the charts shows a likely move in some direction with a symmetric triangle formed. I honestly can’t tell if it is up or down though. Either way, I’ll hold onto it. Looking towards the downside, twenty-five cents looks to be the limit anyways, with obvious support dating back to March and proven by three bullish candles in a row at that time. Upside, sky’s the limit, well no that’s really not true. Actually resistance would be around fifty-five cents. So IF I have any chance of EVER breaking even, this is going to have to break to the upside. Either upside or down, it should break in the next couple of days. We’ll wait and see. I’ll try to follow up then, but honestly after the ride this thing has given me, I’m not an enthusiastic follower, at least not until this is no longer a penny stock(not counting the possibility of a reverse split).